A Referendum on Modern American Conservatism

Well it had to happen. My vacation had to end. It was great. I took some time after finishing my final papers to went to Vegas to celebrate with my hunny. Would love to do it again sometime.

But that was then and this is now.

It's been a while since I've posted and some interesting things have happened - mostly in international politics. Barack Obama is the (presumptive) Democratic nominee for President. I must admit, that if I were a Democratic voter, that I would have supported John Edwards or Hillary first. I think Edwards is a solid, likeable guy with a lot of charisma (though not as much as Obama) and can be trusted to do what is right for the vast majority of Americans. Hillary though would be my first pick. Without question she is tough and well connected and could bring back a lot her hubby's people to fix the economy, which is really what this election should be about.

Although he was my third pick, I have nothing against Obama. However, and as someone who prefers deeds over words, I saw his campaign as nothing more than hyped up rhetoric and a long series of platitudes (ie: referring to American schools as the "corridors of shame"). He is as close a thing as there is to a left-wing American populist. I was amazed though at the nation swoon for this fella. He is without question an impressive speaker ith tons of charisma, but I can't help but wonder - will he be able to balance the budget? Will he resolve the Iraq quagmire, and prevent the Iran quagmire? What will he do about the economy?

The truth is, and Obama's people know it, that the American people are fed up with the conservative-Republican ideology and that the promise of ANY change is better than the status-quo in the minds of most. The American voters, all of them, understand that this is a rare 'framing' election that will shape the next 25-50 years of American economic, foreign, social policy. This is a referendum on the current governing ideology that has brought the American people 'tax relief,' limited government, laissez-faire economics, religious doctrine, and a chauvanistic foreign policy. Obama of course, is running the counter campaign - against 'tax relief' and limited government as an ideology, the separation but maintenance of church and state in the society, and a consultative and nuanced foreign policy that seeks advantage through peace rather than war.

Given the results of only eight years under the leadership of a Modern American Consertive - economic chaos, domestic social tension, war - I would vote for Obama in a heartbeat, and think a majority of Americans will.

Trademarking...

I would like to trademark the name "The Kevorkian Tax" for Dion's Carbon Tax proposal...can anyone explain how I can go about this? ;)

Dion's Carbon Tax: A Tale of Missed Opportunity and Bad Timing

Dion's Carbon Tax proposal is ten years too late and five years too early.

There was a time not too long ago when oil was trading below $80 a barrel, the Liberals were solidly in power and had a $15 billion dollar surplus, the economy was booming, and the public was already full-on behind the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. The introduction of a Carbon Tax at that time along with the those massive income tax cuts of the late 1990's wouldn't have raised an eyebrow among the average voter. An opportunity was missed for such a proposal.

So why can't this proposal work today? The short answer is that the time for preempting for the economic and environmental catastrophes to come has passed, and the need for radical action to solve them has not yet been accepted by the public. In short, the problems have not yet hit home for most people. The problems facing voters today are economic in nature; the manufacturing crisis, declining economic growth, shrinking budget surpluses, oil prices, and above all soaring GAS PRICES.

The next election campaign will surely focus on micro economic issues; high food and gas prices and the difficulties of some isolated local or regional economies will be the top of mind issues for most voters in Canada (Ontario and Quebec really). However, if the most bearish environmental and economic predictions come true, then the following election will deal with more 'macro' issues like; massive droughts, environmentally induced population dislocations, massive unemployment and inflation, and increasing international tensions among the new Superpowers. The election campaign of 2013 would be a great time for the Liberals to introduce a massive shift in the tax system. A Carbon Tax could be, an albeit minor, part of that overhaul. Any damage to consumer pocketbooks could be more than mitigated by the other more radical 'tax relief' initiatives.

To introduce a Carbon Tax today, on it's own, at a time of rising gas prices and economic uncertainty would be political suicide for any Liberal leader. Dion gets marks for courage I suppose, but again demonstrates why that party needs a new leader. Fast.

PS - for more interesting reading see below...

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080411/long_emergency_080412/20080412/

http://www.warrenkinsella.com/index.php?entry=entry080515-083509

http://jasoncherniak.blogspot.com/2008/05/everybody-has-bias.html

Trouble in Toryland...?

This news is a couple of days old already, but I get the feeling we'll be hearing about it again at some point.

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/2850

Gerry Nicholls, a former VP of the National Citizens Coalition and one of the most reliably conservative commentators on Canadian politics, is having second thoughts about the Harper government. Now, Nicholls is one of the ideological ilk that I would say comprises the heart and soul of the Conservative base. They are that 10 percent of the electorate on the far right that can only abandon their principles for so long in the quest for power. They have money and are intensely loyal...to their ideals.

I think the clock is ticking on Harper. I believe the Conservatives have too much money to lose, and the Liberals too little to win in the next election. However, Harper has to win a majority in the next election or one of two things is likely to happen...

a) He will continue to govern in another minority as a Paul Martin liberal and subsequently lose the loyalty of his base - possibly in a dramatic splintering like in the early 1990's.

or

b) He will move to the right and reposition himself as a true conservative, maintaining his base but losing the broader electorate.

Either way, the coalition of the moderate and radical Right in Canada is starting to show some stress fractures.

Who the Hell am I?

Well, my name is Jayson, but if you want to be my friend then you can call me Jay.

I've studied and worked in politics since 1995. I've got a BAH (Guelph) and an MA (Wilfrid Laurier) in politics and have volunteered or worked for all three major political parties and consider myself a moderate voter.

Bias?

Yeah. Left of centre. I'm a New Democrat. I'm quite comfortable as a New Democract at the federal level, but less so with the Ontario party. I think part of it is the sort of issues dealt with by the different governments, but I also think the provincial party has failed to modernize it's agenda and find a moderate voice. A new leader would help I think.

Politicians I like...

Gary Doer, Jack Layton, Gerrard Kennedy, David Miller, Darryl Dexter, Danny Williams, Alexa McDonough, Lorne Calvert, and various Liberal and New Democrat MP's.

Politicans I don't like so much...

Mike Harris, Mario Dumont, Rodney MacDonald, Gordon Campbell, Elizabeth May and Brad Wall, among other Liberal and Conservative MP's.

I guess that's my ideological and partisanship disclosure. I understand some (many?) won't read or consider what I have to say based on the above. Frankly, I don't care. I'm a moderate and if the extreme right or left don't like what I have to say then that is probably a good thing.

So read as you like. Blogging is a new experience, so hopefully this proves to be a fun and useful experience for author and reader alike :)

Cheers, J.